The Lumber Word

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

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Episodes

7 days ago

The Lumber Word takes the show on the road and does Episode #97 in front of the live audience. Gregg, Ashley, and Charles talk about what they heard the last few days from industry experts on lumber, logs, pulp & paper along with many other exciting speakers. Mitchell Preger from Industrial Forest Products also joins us today. Thanks to Russ Taylor for the invite and the opportunity to expose more people to TLW. We looked at pricing for 2025, European lumber, Southern Pine, and what is happening with the cut in Canada. Come listen in and make sure to come to Vancouver next year to experience this in person.

Friday Oct 18, 2024

Join industry veteran Sig Thoma as he dives deep into the factors shaping lumber pricing. Matt and Ashley get Sig's insights on housing affordability, who are snapping up new homes, and the 10-30-year yield curve's impact on the market. We also explore the sticky situation with lumber mill costs, why residuals are a pain, and what expectations for Q1 2025 could bring in terms of curtailments. What happens if demand rises, and production slows? Tune in and get smarter about where the market’s headed!

Saturday Oct 05, 2024

In this episode, Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into a week packed with events shaking up the lumber world. How does the flow of lumber look now, and what can we expect heading into 2025? The team grabs their crystal lumber ball to give you insights into the future. Plus, we dig into the cross-border dispute—who’s getting a slice of that $11 billion pie? What are the hot items and what should you be getting the heck out of?  How do we think sellers of production can get better returns in 2025? Whether you’re a trader looking to get under the hood, or you sit somewhere along the supply chain, this episode has the intel you need. Fire up the podcast and get smarter!

Thursday Sep 26, 2024

In this episode, Charles DeLaTorre joins us. We break down how #lumber users are adopting the JPT (Just Past Time) inventory method and what it means for the market. With everyone betting on higher prices next year, how should buyers, sellers, and risk managers play their hand? With everyone thinking one thing it will probably not play out the way we all have it scripted in out head.  We also dive into why mills keep clinging to outdated pricing formulas when selling to the big-box giants. Why are there still a high amount of shorts in the market?  The conversation gets lively, and whether you're at the office, in the car, or out for a run, you'll leave feeling smarter—and maybe even a step ahead of the game!

Friday Sep 20, 2024

This week on The Lumber Word, we’re joined by Chris Beard from John Burns Research & Consulting! I’ve seen them at events, and they are the OG of research in this market! Chris dives into the stats that keep our market moving and gives us the John Burns perspective on housing starts, permits, and long-term trends. We ask the big questions: What’s the lag between interest rates and housing demand? How are we shaping up to end the year, and what does 2025 look like? If you're anywhere near the construction supply chain, you'll want to hear Chris's insights. Matt, Gregg and Ashley all want Chris back after this great POD. And don’t forget to check out what John Burns Consulting can do for your business at www.jbrec.com!

Friday Sep 13, 2024

In this episode, Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into the post-curtailment lumber world, sharing their seasoned lumber trading insights as they try to make sense of this wild market. Are home centers in for a shock in 2025 with potential production shortfalls? Will there be a rush for premium grades? The team dissects overvalued and undervalued products, ponders why 4" lumber is dragging, and breaks down the latest on September lumber futures expiration. Stick around for the final fun segment—marry, date, dump—where lumber gets the matchmaking treatment. You’ll leave with plenty of laughs and solid trading tips!

Friday Sep 06, 2024

In this jam-packed episode, we’re joined by a friend, and lumber industry expert Charles DeLaTorre to upgrade our SYP knowledge. It’s been a whirlwind week in lumber, and with Canfor's recent curtailments shaking up North American markets, we're diving deep into where we stand with supply and demand.
Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Ashley had a lively debate on what the future holds for lumber prices in late 2024, with Gregg making some bold predictions for 2025. Matt also brings the WSPF and Pac NW lumber information and talks about Hem Fir and DDF filling into some lost WSPF regions.  If you’re planning to buy or sell lumber soon, this episode is a must-listen. We also tackled the September CME Lumber Futures expiration and what might be on the horizon for November and January. Tune in for insights that’ll keep you ahead of the curve!

Thursday Aug 29, 2024

 In Episode #90 of "The Lumber Word Podcast," Gregg, Matt, and Ashley dive deep into the current lumber market, debating whether we're at the peak or just getting started. The team discusses the velocity and strength of the truck market, as well as historically low inventory levels. Are mills sitting on a lot of dressed inventory, or are buyers overextending by purchasing extra trucks? With short orders popping up in the cash market, the crew explores whether these moves make sense. Tune in to hear their insights and what you should be doing over the next 4-6 weeks to stay ahead.

Wednesday Aug 21, 2024

In this episode, we're excited to have Russ Taylor from Russ Taylor Global joining us! We kick things off by chatting about his upcoming event, the Global Wood Summit, happening this October 29-30. And guess what? The Lumber Word will be doing a live podcast right from the event! Go to www.globalwoodsummit.com for the details.
Today, we dive into the latest market trends from the past 30-60 days. We explore why so many lumber buyers are still playing it safe as prices climb higher. How much North American production has slowed down, and what can we expect going forward? We also break down the current cost of production and what the new Canadian lumber duty means for today and next year.
Tune in to get the inside scoop and maybe even gain the edge you need in this shifting market!

Wednesday Aug 14, 2024

In this episode, we welcome Joe Pepe from LMC to help us break down the current state of the lumber market. We dive into where we stand in the lumber cycle—is supply finally catching up with demand? Matt highlights the differences between the 2x4 market and 2x6 and wider, while we discuss key indicators to watch for in the upcoming housing starts report. We also explore how lean end users are keeping their inventories and share insights from our own business dealings.
We ponder how far this lumber market can continue to rise and what surprises might be on the horizon. Plus, we touch on the growing trend of builders asking their suppliers for longer-price locks. This episode is packed with valuable insights and plenty of fun along the way!

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Ashley Boeckholt

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