The Lumber Word

EP 159: The Fog of War

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market.The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time?If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.
Chapters
0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market
1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs
6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring
12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing
16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics
20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength
24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying
27:00 – Lumber price outlook
30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand
33:00 – Western supply shifts
36:30 – Final market takeaways
 
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.
Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.
So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?
In this episode, the guys debate:
Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing
Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada
Southern Pine regional price spreads
What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory
Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does
Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules
Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?
 
Strap in.
Timestamps
00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins
02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect
04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments
10:00 – Southern Pine update
18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion
24:00 – Trading range debate
36:00 – Why mills keep running
42:00 – Tariff clarification
 
Guest:
 Kip Foteringham
Independent Trader and Market Analyst 
kipf@telus.net
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 
 

EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
Timestamps
00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads
06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing
10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs
17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze
21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math
27:00 – Canadian shipment declines
31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means
35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability
40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth
45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook
 
 
Advertiser:
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Product
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Thomas Mende
Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com
https://www.binderholz.com/
 
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 156: : Quiet… or Weak?

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast.Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most?  Ashley connects the dots on what he knows is happening in real-time supply and demand. Did we leave the studio sucking our thumbs… or bulled up and ready? 
Crush the follow button and find out.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 155: Recalibrating the Lumber Compass

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.
 
Advertiser and Guest
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 154: "You sent me the same lumber job inquiry for two weeks?”

Two familiar faces are back as Bart Charles and Matt Layman join us to break down a lumber market that just won’t quit. Prices across all species are climbing the classic wall of worry—up nearly $100/MBF in the last two months and still catching a bid. With big multifamily jobbers caught short and orders leaking back in, is an $800/MBF print really in play?Take a breather, hit play, and hear what we think—most listeners walk away a lot smarter and entertained.
 
Advertisers:
Fastmarkets Random Lengths
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Advertiser and Guest
Layman’s Lumber Guide
www.laymansguide.com
Matt@laymansguide.com
Guest
Bart Charles
Atlantic Forest Products
charles@atlanticforest.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 153: When the Phones Don’t Stop Ringing

The lumber market keeps showing strength across all species. Gregg and Matt discuss longer-term multifamily projects starting to appear, while Charles breaks down how Southern Pine strength has evolved. We’re seeing tight availability, trucks being chased after purchase, and the same quotes coming back days later — classic up-market signals that surprised many. How long does it last? Tune in to find out.
 
Fastmarkets Random Lengths
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Lumberhub.net
George@Lumberhub.net
 
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 152: The Dilbert Curve of Lumber: When Reality Bends, and Prices Move

This episode of The Lumber Word is dedicated to Scott Adams, who passed away this week. One of the main reasons this podcast exists is because of his influence—his ability to cut through noise, challenge assumptions, and explain complex systems in a way that actually made sense. That mindset is at the core of what we try to do every week: make this podcast useful and give back to the lumber industry. Thanks, Scott.
Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles circle up and jump right into North American species dynamics, with a quick (and well-earned) look back at calling the Q1 price move—and then a deeper discussion on the more important question: how far can it go from here?
With demand still a head-scratcher and supply slowly coming off the board, the group breaks down what this tightening setup could mean over the next few months. You’ll hear exactly how we’re thinking about inventory positioning, hedging, and pricing strategy in this market. Charles goes the extra mile with a boots-on-the-ground read of SYP, sharing what the market feels like—not just what the numbers say.
If lumber is an input cost, your main cost, or something you actively trade, this episode reinforces why The Lumber Word remains the go-to podcast for practical, real-world market insight.
Thanks for listening.Advertisers:
Fastmarkets Random Lengths
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Layman’s Lumber Guide
www.laymansguide.com
Matt@laymansguide.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 151: Are you Reelin’ in the Lumber Years!

Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and Charles kick off the New Year by breaking down the flow of lumber heading into 2026. From what different species are doing to why listeners of The Lumber Word tend to be a step ahead. The crew digs into market positioning, hedging misconceptions, and where real opportunity lies. If you want a few laughs and to be a smarter, better-prepared lumber trader in 2026, this episode is a must-listen.
 
Advertisers:
Fastmarkets Random Lengths
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt Ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 150: Fuel for the Next Move

Alex Mead from StoneX joins Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles for a milestone Episode 150 packed with market insight. The group breaks down current lumber conditions, why the new CME SYP lumber contract is positioned to grow in the coming years, and what the Commitment of Traders Report is signaling about the next move.They discuss the wide spread between CME and spot lumber, how buyers across the supply chain are reacting, and whether being short into Q1 could be risky. Stick around to the end for early 2026 forecasts and a strong close from Matt, highlighting gratitude for the industry and why this market still matters.
Advertisers:
Fastmarkets Random Lengths
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Layman’s Lumber Guide
www.laymansguide.com
Matt@laymansguide.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Guest: Alex Mead
Risk Management Consultant
StoneX
Alex.mead@stonex.com