The Lumber Word

The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.
Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?
Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge?
The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility.
The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.
1.Timeline
00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us?
01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky”
05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts
09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall?
11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap?
14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers
17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market?
18:10 — September/November futures positioning
19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped
21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply
25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers?
26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500?
29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic
30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash?
33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying?
37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility
40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market
44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think
46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall
49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity?
50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility?
52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally?
53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it
53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? 
In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. 
Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize. 
The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West. 
Then the conversation gets deeper. 
Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established? 
Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand. 
The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself. 
Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade? 
Timeline 
00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount 
06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding 
10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories 
14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses 
15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market 
17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF 
20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures 
21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures? 
25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily 
27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom? 
29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery? 
31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry 
32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability 
35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics 
39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed 
41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument? 
44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization 
46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story 
48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning 
Keywords 
Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast 

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization.Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come.The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads.Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately.
Episode Timeline
00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates
03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market
12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking
19:15 – Current lumber market conditions
22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand
25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook
28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion
33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities
37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks
43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market
46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next
51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts
Guest
Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber
KLittle@sherwoodlumber.com
NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association
2026 Traders Market Information
If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend!
https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket
Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA
MBruno@nawla.org
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else.
Timeline
00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause?
05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand
13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts
17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk
25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today
31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine
35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion
39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters

The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place.In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer.Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three respected industry leaders whose retirements mark the end of an era in the lumber business.Other topics include:• Is SPF 2x4 the cheapest value in North American lumber today?• Could Western Spruce reach $700 by Labor Day?• Southern Yellow Pine supply, production cuts, and inventory trends• Why mills still aren't chasing production despite stronger pricing• Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain cautious• Canadian shipment trends and what they signal for the second half of 2026• The importance of mentorship, relationships, and reputation in the lumber industryWhether you're a lumber trader, sawmill executive, wholesaler, retailer, builder, or simply follow North American wood products markets, this episode delivers practical market intelligence and industry insight you won't want to miss.
Simple Timeline
00:00 – Episode 175 begins and current lumber market overview
02:00 – Why SPF 2x4 appears undervalued compared to other lumber products
06:00 – Customer visits, building relationships, and selling opportunities
07:00 – Matt's recap of the Inland Lumber Producers Conference
09:45 – Honoring retiring lumber industry leaders
17:30 – Mentorship and why relationships define long-term success in lumber
18:00 – Southern Yellow Pine market update with Charles
20:00 – Western species, Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and current trading conditions
23:00 – Distribution inventories, buying strategies, and market positioning
25:45 – Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain hesitant
27:00 – Dimension lumber discussion: 2x10s, 2x12s, and seasonal production trends
33:00 – Canadian production, stud mills, and profitability
37:00 – Pulp markets, fiber supply, and residual economics
39:30 – Canadian shipment data, inventory outlook, and what's next for the lumber market.

Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss.
Timeline
00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets.
02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing.
08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data.
15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures.
21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand.
28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges.
34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics.
35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations.
41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook.
Guest: Russ Taylor
WWW.russtaylorglobal.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

Episode Summary
Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing policy, builder demand, infrastructure, and why regional economics continue to drive long-term lumber consumption. This episode offers practical insights for wholesalers, retailers, mills, traders, and anyone following the North American lumber industry.
Timeline
00:00 – Introductions, Chicago sports, and welcome back to Mike Wisnefski.
02:00 – Southern Pine Conference recap—networking, collaboration, and supply chain partnerships.
04:00 – Private equity ownership of sawmills and changing mill economics.
05:30 – Future of the CME Southern Pine futures contract and ideas for improving liquidity.
10:00 – Cash settlement, delivery points, and regional pricing challenges.
15:00 – Western lumber market strength, improving order files, and species updates.
18:00 – Dimension shortages, 2x10 pricing, and shifting production patterns.
20:00 – Eastern market tightness, European imports, and shrinking inventories.
25:00 – Housing legislation, permitting challenges, and rebuilding constraints.
31:30 – Regional migration, affordability, and long-term housing demand.
34:00 – Inventory strategy, reload economics, and why distributors are regaining value.
40:00 – Options pricing, risk management, and disciplined trading strategies.
44:00 – Closing thoughts on market structure, hedging opportunities, and the second-half outlook.
Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc.
MikeW@westlinecapital.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Matt Layman returns to The Lumber Word for an in-depth discussion on one of the hottest topics in the lumber industry: the summer lumber rally. With inventories running lean, freight markets tightening, and mills extending order files, the crew explores whether lumber prices still have room to run.The conversation begins with a recap of the Southern Pine hedging seminar hosted by StoneX and Westline Capital, where attendees discussed the future of lumber risk management, liquidity challenges, and why more companies need to gain hands-on experience using futures markets.The group then shifts to the cash lumber market, breaking down strength in SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, and Douglas Fir. Matt shares what he's seeing in the Pacific Northwest, while Gregg and Ashley discuss supply constraints, delayed shipments, trucking shortages, and why buying lumber is becoming harder than selling it.They also analyze the latest housing starts data, debate whether demand is stronger than many expect, and discuss how lean inventories throughout the supply chain continue to support higher prices despite widespread economic pessimism.Plus: freight disruptions, rail delays, inventory management, futures trading lessons, Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Ashley's outlook for where lumber prices may be headed through July and beyond.If you're a lumber dealer, wholesaler, manufacturer, builder, trader, or investor looking to stay ahead of the market, this episode is packed with actionable insights.
Topics Covered
Lumber Market Outlook
SPF Lumber Prices
Southern Yellow Pine (SYP)
Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Markets
Lumber Futures & Hedging
Freight & Trucking Costs
Rail Service Challenges
Housing Starts Analysis
Inventory Management
Lumber Industry Economics
SpaceX & Market Psychology
Summer 2026 Lumber Rally
Timeline
00:00 – Matt Layman Returns to The Lumber Word
03:00 – Southern Pine Futures, Hedging & Market Participation
07:00 – Risk Management: How Lumber Companies Should Think About Futures
15:00 – Trading Lessons: Winning, Losing & Market Discipline
16:00 – SPF, Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Break Higher
21:00 – Is Southern Yellow Pine Finally Joining the Rally?
27:00 – Housing Starts: What the Headlines Missed
30:00 – Elon Musk, SpaceX & Economic Optimism
34:00 – Ashley's Bullish Case for Lumber
38:00 – Freight Bottlenecks, Rail Delays & Inventory Shortages
44:00+ – Why Buying Lumber Is Harder Than Selling It
Episode Takeaway
The lumber market continues to be driven by one simple reality: inventories remain too low while supply struggles to keep up. Despite negative sentiment around housing and the economy, buyers continue to chase wood, mills are extending order files, and freight remains a major constraint. The panel agrees that the path of least resistance for lumber prices remains higher until inventories are rebuilt and supply catches up.
 
Guest: Matt Layman
www.laymansguide.com
Matt@laymansguide.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets.From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer.The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market.
Timeline
00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry ReachPortland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations.
03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market?The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now.
07:00 – Transportation Becomes the StoryEscalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America.
09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets RealDiscussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink.
15:00 – Why This Summer Feels DifferentThe crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup.
22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber FalloutA major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production.
25:00 – Smart Money is Buying HousingBerkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand.
30:00 – Funds Are Covering ShortsKip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher.
35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally?The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days.
44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven OtherwiseThe episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead.
Guest: Kip Fotheringham
Lumber Trader and Market Expert
KipF@telus.net
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com