The Lumber Word

The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk.
In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end.
With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity?
Timeline
00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup
02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low
04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year?
06:06 The Hedging Problem
08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again
11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices
13:05 Futures vs. Cash
14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities
15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying?
16:24 Southern Pine Pricing
19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card
22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF
24:13 What Changes This Market?
28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability
30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down?
32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case
34:25 Navigating Q4
35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist
36:21 Apathy Defines the Market
36:39 What to Own & What to Sell
38:06 Marry, Date or Dump
39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go
39:44 Final Thoughts
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.
With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber?
Timeline
00:00 Bart Charles joins the show
01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand
04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”?
06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing
09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce
13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update
15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs
17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here?
19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways”
21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities
23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums?
29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk
31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability
32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs
34:28 Are traders still short lumber?
35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine
37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme
39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt
39:51 Locking in Q1 margins
40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now
41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge”
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
Guest
Bart Charles
BCharles@shamrockbm.com

Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom.
Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sharp price swings, tighter production control, freight volatility, and execution risk are making the market increasingly difficult to trade. The conversation also turns to Southern timberland, falling pulpwood demand, mill closures, and what cheap Southern fiber could mean for lumber production longer term.
Then Ashley raises a bigger question: Who is really the smart money in lumber today—the industry or the funds? The guys examine how large systematic and trend-following funds can stay with positions far longer than physical traders expect, ignore traditional ideas like cost of production, and potentially push lumber much farther in either direction than the industry thinks makes sense.
The episode wraps with signs of bottoming in futures, narrow Southern Pine, SPF dimension and studs, the possibility of a trading bounce into September expiration, and where November futures could run into resistance.
Timeline
00:00 – Opening, Lumber Word merch & potential Traders Market appearance
02:50 – Cash market update and seasonal weakness
04:20 – September vs. November futures and the cash/futures discount
06:30 – Could taking September CME delivery make sense?
08:00 – Is SPF beginning to find a trading bottom?
09:00 – Stud values and major relative-value opportunities
11:10 – Southern Yellow Pine: 4-inch strength and shrinking discount windows
12:45 – Pine volatility, freight costs and huge moves in wides
14:00 – How well is the CME Southern Pine contract tracking cash?
15:45 – Short covering or the beginning of a real market bounce?
20:00 – Why buyers with business on the books may want to start covering
22:00 – Market headwinds: tariffs, mortgage rates and housing demand
25:30 – Seasonal weakness, freight risk and the importance of execution
28:20 – "No edge, no hedge" and finding an advantage in today's market
32:15 – What is happening to Southern U.S. timberland?
33:20 – Cheap Southern fiber, pulp mill closures and long-term implications
38:45 – Industry vs. funds: Who is really the smart money?
40:00 – Why large funds can push lumber beyond industry expectations
42:10 – Cost of production, shutdown economics and lost Canadian production
43:15 – Bottoming signals across futures, Pine, SPF and studs
44:30 – November futures resistance and the September/November spread
46:00 – Closing thoughts
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up.
Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish?
Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge?
The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility.
The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.
1.Timeline
00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us?
01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky”
05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts
09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall?
11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap?
14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers
17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market?
18:10 — September/November futures positioning
19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped
21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply
25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers?
26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500?
29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic
30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash?
33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying?
37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility
40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market
44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think
46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall
49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity?
50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility?
52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally?
53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it
53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?
This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.
The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.
They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.
But the real conversation is about risk.
Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?
Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.
Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.
Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? 
In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. 
Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize. 
The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West. 
Then the conversation gets deeper. 
Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established? 
Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand. 
The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself. 
Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade? 
Timeline 
00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount 
06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding 
10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories 
14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses 
15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market 
17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF 
20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures 
21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures? 
25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily 
27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom? 
29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery? 
31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry 
32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability 
35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics 
39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed 
41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument? 
44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization 
46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story 
48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning 
Keywords 
Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast 

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization.Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come.The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads.Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately.
Episode Timeline
00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates
03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market
12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking
19:15 – Current lumber market conditions
22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand
25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook
28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion
33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities
37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks
43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market
46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next
51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts
Guest
Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber
KLittle@sherwoodlumber.com
NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association
2026 Traders Market Information
If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend!
https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket
Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA
MBruno@nawla.org
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else.
Timeline
00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause?
05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand
13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts
17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk
25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today
31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine
35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion
39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters

The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place.In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer.Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three respected industry leaders whose retirements mark the end of an era in the lumber business.Other topics include:• Is SPF 2x4 the cheapest value in North American lumber today?• Could Western Spruce reach $700 by Labor Day?• Southern Yellow Pine supply, production cuts, and inventory trends• Why mills still aren't chasing production despite stronger pricing• Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain cautious• Canadian shipment trends and what they signal for the second half of 2026• The importance of mentorship, relationships, and reputation in the lumber industryWhether you're a lumber trader, sawmill executive, wholesaler, retailer, builder, or simply follow North American wood products markets, this episode delivers practical market intelligence and industry insight you won't want to miss.
Simple Timeline
00:00 – Episode 175 begins and current lumber market overview
02:00 – Why SPF 2x4 appears undervalued compared to other lumber products
06:00 – Customer visits, building relationships, and selling opportunities
07:00 – Matt's recap of the Inland Lumber Producers Conference
09:45 – Honoring retiring lumber industry leaders
17:30 – Mentorship and why relationships define long-term success in lumber
18:00 – Southern Yellow Pine market update with Charles
20:00 – Western species, Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and current trading conditions
23:00 – Distribution inventories, buying strategies, and market positioning
25:45 – Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain hesitant
27:00 – Dimension lumber discussion: 2x10s, 2x12s, and seasonal production trends
33:00 – Canadian production, stud mills, and profitability
37:00 – Pulp markets, fiber supply, and residual economics
39:30 – Canadian shipment data, inventory outlook, and what's next for the lumber market.

Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss.
Timeline
00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets.
02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing.
08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data.
15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures.
21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand.
28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges.
34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics.
35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations.
41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook.
Guest: Russ Taylor
WWW.russtaylorglobal.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Tiranth Amarasinghe
Product Marketing Manager
Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com