The Lumber Word

EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?
Timeline
0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active
3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species
6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy
10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish
15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply
20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate
27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business
33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 
ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?
Timeline
0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active
3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species
6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy
10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish
15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply
20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate
27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business
33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 166: Is Freight the Real Lumber Market Right Now?

This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price.
Timeline (Condensed)
0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset
2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs
5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board
10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply
15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine
20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage
25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap
30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight
35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 165: Spring-time Round Up

Summary
Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market.Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check.The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?
Timeline
0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility
2:00 – Truck vs rail market split
4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy
6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply
8:00 – Euro supply dropping off
12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown
15:00 – Mills still losing money
18:00 – Logistics driving everything
25:00 – Macro + economy check
27:00 – SYP gaining market share
38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter)
46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors
Guest
Kip Fotheringham
kip@telus.net
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction.The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts.  They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy.If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers.
Timeline
00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup  03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts  08:30 – Government spending vs affordability  14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook  16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues  18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand  24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained  30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class  41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks 
Guest
Brian S. Wesbury
Chief Economist / First Trust
www.ftportfolios.com
 
 
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first!The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.
Timestamps:
0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)
4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon
9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins
13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market
14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard
20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery?
29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine)
33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate
35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top
40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast
Takeaway:
Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down.From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think.If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers.
Timestamps
0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns
1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities)
5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber
7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher
9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution
12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus)
16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness
17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions
19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking
23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now
27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight
29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit?
30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption)
33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand
36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now
Guest
Mike Logelin
President-Gulf Coast Shelter
mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 161: Miss It Today, Pay Up Tomorrow

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.
Timeline
0:00 – Market flips from slow to active
2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength
7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov
10:00 – Order files into April
12:00 – Freight tightening supply
15:00 – Buyers now chasing
28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance
35:00 – Early innings of the move
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 160: Freight Shock and the Sneaky Lumber Rally

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.
The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species.Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.
Spotify Timeline (Chapters)
00:00 – Intro & market setup
03:00 – Freight costs jump
07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing
12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay
18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)
26:00 – Second‑half market outlook
31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market
38:00 – Futures & trade ideas
41:00 – OSB and other materials
Guest
Sig Thoma
Sig@XMICO.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 159: The Fog of War

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market.The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time?If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.
Chapters
0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market
1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs
6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring
12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing
16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics
20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength
24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying
27:00 – Lumber price outlook
30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand
33:00 – Western supply shifts
36:30 – Final market takeaways
 
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.
Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.
So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?
In this episode, the guys debate:
Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing
Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada
Southern Pine regional price spreads
What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory
Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does
Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules
Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?
 
Strap in.
Timestamps
00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins
02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect
04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments
10:00 – Southern Pine update
18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion
24:00 – Trading range debate
36:00 – Why mills keep running
42:00 – Tariff clarification
 
Guest:
 Kip Foteringham
Independent Trader and Market Analyst 
kipf@telus.net
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com