The Lumber Word

EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction.The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts.  They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy.If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers.
Timeline
00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup  03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts  08:30 – Government spending vs affordability  14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook  16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues  18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand  24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained  30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class  41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks 
Guest
Brian S. Wesbury
Chief Economist / First Trust
www.ftportfolios.com
 
 
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first!The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.
Timestamps:
0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)
4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon
9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins
13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market
14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard
20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery?
29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine)
33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate
35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top
40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast
Takeaway:
Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down.From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think.If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers.
Timestamps
0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns
1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities)
5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber
7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher
9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution
12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus)
16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness
17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions
19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking
23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now
27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight
29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit?
30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption)
33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand
36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now
Guest
Mike Logelin
President-Gulf Coast Shelter
mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 161: Miss It Today, Pay Up Tomorrow

The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.
Timeline
0:00 – Market flips from slow to active
2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength
7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov
10:00 – Order files into April
12:00 – Freight tightening supply
15:00 – Buyers now chasing
28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance
35:00 – Early innings of the move
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 160: Freight Shock and the Sneaky Lumber Rally

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.
The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species.Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.
Spotify Timeline (Chapters)
00:00 – Intro & market setup
03:00 – Freight costs jump
07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing
12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay
18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)
26:00 – Second‑half market outlook
31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market
38:00 – Futures & trade ideas
41:00 – OSB and other materials
Guest
Sig Thoma
Sig@XMICO.com
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 159: The Fog of War

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market.The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time?If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.
Chapters
0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market
1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs
6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring
12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing
16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics
20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength
24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying
27:00 – Lumber price outlook
30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand
33:00 – Western supply shifts
36:30 – Final market takeaways
 
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.
Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.
So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?
In this episode, the guys debate:
Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing
Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada
Southern Pine regional price spreads
What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory
Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does
Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules
Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?
 
Strap in.
Timestamps
00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins
02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect
04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments
10:00 – Southern Pine update
18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion
24:00 – Trading range debate
36:00 – Why mills keep running
42:00 – Tariff clarification
 
Guest:
 Kip Foteringham
Independent Trader and Market Analyst 
kipf@telus.net
 
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 
 

EP 157: Euro Pressure, Pine Pivots & A Flattening Curve

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market.Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium?Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think.We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain.If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.
Timestamps
00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads
06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing
10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs
17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze
21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math
27:00 – Canadian shipment declines
31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means
35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability
40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth
45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook
 
 
Advertiser:
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Product
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Guest: Thomas Mende
Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com
https://www.binderholz.com/
 
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

EP 156: : Quiet… or Weak?

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast.Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most?  Ashley connects the dots on what he knows is happening in real-time supply and demand. Did we leave the studio sucking our thumbs… or bulled up and ready? 
Crush the follow button and find out.
Advertiser
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com
 

EP 155: Recalibrating the Lumber Compass

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.
 
Advertiser and Guest
Fastmarkets RISI
Dustin Jalbert
Senior Economist Wood Products
djalbert@fastmarkets.com
www.fastmarkets.com
Show Contacts:
Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com
Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com
Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com
Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com